Models

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• When and where will influenza strike?
  • Motivation
  • Gaussian Processes Review
  • Model 1: Gaussian process
  • Model 2: Deep Gaussian processes
  • Model 3: Gaussian process mixture with XGBoost mean function
  • Experimental Results
  • Shortcomings
• How big will an influenza outbreak be?
  • Motivation
  • Prior Elicitation
  • Prior Model
  • Observation Model
  • Simulating our prior model
    • A Quick Remark
  • Model Choice
  • Posterior sampling
  • Approximate Bayesian Computation
  • Results
  • Shortcomings